The Footstockers’ Forecast
Using cutting-edge equipment, state-of-the-art resources (pictured at the bottom) and a measure of the current market sentiment, I have taken a look at the projected league positions at the end of the 2020/2021 Premier League season.
The collection value price of each active player has been recorded. Each team’s cumulative totals have then been divided by their respective number of players to give an ‘average player price’ for that team.
The results highlight a number of things which I’ll ramble on about in no particular order.
The image looks every inch the stereotypical Premier League table: the ‘big six’ pretty much remain the big six, mid-table mediocrity awaits what might be considered the usual suspects and the teams in the relegation mix seem feasible. Four clubs even hold the same position in the collective FS psyche as they do in real life.
In terms of outliers – for me Everton and Sheffield Utd’s positions clearly reflect their respective good and bad form. On the other hand, the FS hive haven’t a great deal of faith in Leeds and Aston Villa maintaining their early promise.
Continuing with Leeds, by the end of gameweek six we’ve already effectively lost the recency bias in relation to newly promoted teams – Leeds, Fulham and West Brom are expected to finish 13th, 17th and 20th respectively according to the spending habits of the masses.
When I first tinkered with this idea at the beginning of the month, all three were still sitting much higher than they are now due to their new, shiny status – the European auctions have perhaps had an effect there. Certainly last season the three that came up retained an inflated premium almost into the new year period. FOMO hasn’t had the same longevity this time round.
Is there actually something in the notorious Twitter conspiracy theories about a Manchester United bias on football trading platforms? The numbers do have them ultimately lifting this year’s trophy – but is it more likely it’s just Bruno Fernandes skewing the figures?
Is Liverpool’s injury crisis really affecting the market? Will they really finish as low as 5th and fail to qualify for next season’s UCL as the figures suggest? Or again, is it due to them having the biggest depth in ‘active’ players, thus lowering their ‘average player price’?
This has been a bit of fun folks, a novelty angle on the market – please don’t base any trading decisions on what you’ve read here! It is something I may revisit over the new year though.
*All averages calculated using prices that were correct on 28/10/20, kudos to @footstockTJM and then @footstockstats for the raw data